There hasn’t been the usual rush of vendors at Canada’s popular Spring market thus far. Investors may have a greater issue than slow sales, BMO Capital Markets said. They point to many causes but ultimately conclude there is no incentive to sell. Less than a year after the Canadian real estate market started falling, the government is implementing a series of stimulus measures.
Homeowners in Canada aren't rushing to put their properties on the market
Most Canadian homeowners wait until the spring market to put their home up for sale, but activity has been modest thus far. Toronto (-44%) and Vancouver (-34%), two market leaders, decreased in new listings in March. Although data from other areas has yet to be reported, brokers from throughout the nation say the data from the middle of the month will reveal that sellers were limited in all markets.
Toronto may have a greater problem than slow sales, according to BMO economist Robert Kavcic. Investors, he said, should be aware that last month was the region’s slowest for new listings since 2001.
Following are some of his observations that might explain the slowdown:
- They are not obligated to sell in such a poor market.
- This is not a recession, with its accompanying layoffs and forced home sales, but rather a correction in asset prices.
- As a result, most homeowners in today’s market aren’t under significant payment pressure.
- As a result of OSFI’s buyer stress testing, no transactions were ever forced.
- People are remaining put because of the high price of relocating or trade.
- The rental sector provides solid returns for investors.
There must be a reason to buy or sell an asset
All valid arguments, incentives, in particular, seem to be at the heart of most. Asset holders in any given market will do so for as long as they see a benefit in doing so. Would you part with a mystical piece of paper that guaranteed you $20,000 per month? Very likely not. You’ll probably attempt to use the worth of the paper to get even more “magic” paper. Several financiers are buying homes with negative cash flow. This occurs when the speculator/landlord must supplement the tenant’s rent in order to meet the property’s carrying expenses. In this case, investors still made money despite a small inconvenience by increasing rents. Holding back causes a severe scarcity in the market, which in turn drives up the price. As prices rise, there is less of a surplus to store, which causes supplies to become even more limited.
While prices are dropping, an unexpected influx of stock is common. The motivation to avoid having your gains wiped away lies in the fact that you don’t earn any money until you sell. The cheaper pricing made possible by the larger inventory encourages even more buying. Major trend shifts are more likely to occur with a financialized asset when there is momentum in either way.
Most people treat real estate as if it were an investment vehicle, analyzing market forces like supply and demand. There are x persons in need of a home, thus they will place bids on y properties. Investments don’t function that way; rather, their value is determined by how much cash they can be converted into. Due to investors seeking returns through asset inflation, there will never be enough “affordable” homes built.
House prices tend to fall as interest rates rise because buyers can’t take advantage of as much debt. In times of crisis, central banks are expected to step in as a “lender of last resort.” Governments shouldn’t offer economic stimulus just because they can, but rather when there has been a sustained shortage of investment. Since the 2008 financial crisis, that is not how things have worked.
As expected, rising interest rates stifled lending and drove down housing prices. Nevertheless, Canada lacks the stomach for tough love less than a year later. As a financial liquidity crisis bolstered moral hazard by suggesting credit stimulus was on the horizon, the market is now salivating. The Federal government has also recently increased subsidized demand while also opening the market to international investment only days after deciding it was essential to limit such activity.
The message to potential investors is clear: Canada is essentially a house-trading hub. In other words, the motivation to hang onto your inventory is larger than any correction factor at this time since it couldn’t endure a complete year without providing stimulation. Why would anybody sell before your government, which is basically an army of real estate speculators, buys up all the available properties? They are incentivised to artificially inflate the asset in which they have a financial stake.