Is the Greater Toronto real estate market overpriced? The composite benchmark, or average house, had a price increase in March, according to statistics from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB). Despite the uptick, home sales have been dismal, and that isn’t expected to change anytime soon, according to industry analysts. For a second consecutive month, though, purchasers drove prices significantly higher.
Home values in the Greater Toronto Area increased by $27,000 in only one month
A year after interest rate rises, property prices in the Greater Toronto Area have surged. In March, the TRREB standard surged 2.5% (+$27,200) to $1,118,500. Toronto’s benchmark also increased, reaching $1.101 million (a gain of 2.2%, or +$24,100) from the previous month. The BoC’s annual inflation objective is 2%, therefore, this month’s rise was higher than that.
Real estate prices in the Greater Toronto Area may have reached bottom
Real estate prices in the Greater Toronto Area are still falling, but they may be bottoming out. Prices in TRREB have decreased by 16.2% (-$216,200) and in the City of Toronto by 13.1% (-$167,500) during the last year. But, the worst of the last year’s decline is over, and prices have risen by around 1 point relative to each benchmark.
There is no sign of a rebound in the Greater Toronto Area's housing market
There was no increase in house sales to blame for the price increase. March existing home sales in the Greater Toronto Area dropped 36.5% to 6,896 units. That’s down considerably from the previous year and the lowest level seen in at least the past five years.
There won’t be a dramatic shift in sales, according to industry experts. According to National Bank of Canada analyst Daren King, “despite these early indications of stabilization, sales remain significantly below their historical norm, having plummeted by 49.8 percent from their previous high in February 2022.” (NBF). Nevertheless, “…the possibility of a rebound in the housing market remains modest since we estimate the Bank of Canada to hold its policy rate at the present restrictive level for most of 2023,” they write. So, in the future months, sales should continue to be below their long-term average.
The Supply of Preexisting Properties Declines
Reduced stock levels may be attributed to retailers responding to improved credit availability. According to King, March’s drop in new listings followed a 24% drop in February. As a result, the number of active listings (as opposed to the total number of listings) has dropped by 21%. According to King, “as a consequence, market conditions in Toronto are somewhat tighter than the historical norm,” as measured by the active-listings-to-sales ratio.The Canadian real estate market, which is driven by moral hazard, has come to believe that a poor economy is beneficial to property values. Although King may be correct that sales will be flat for most of the year, investors are looking forward to lenient loan terms as a result of the worldwide financial crisis. The current narrative is that the state’s attempts to foster low-cost development will lead to a spike in property prices. Whether or whether they are incorrect is unclear at this time.