Central banks

Central banks blamed for majority of global real estate price increase What factors are contributing to the rise in global property prices? Well, it’s all about the money. This is a condensed version of the findings from the study conducted by the Bank of International Settlements (BIS). The Bank for International Settlements (BIS), which is known as the central bank for central banks, recently issued a warning the risks to global home prices are being formed. According to the findings of their researchers, the majority of the progress made since 2020 can be attributed to monetary policy. A synchronization risk was created as a result of countries adopting policies that were similar to one another. These risks have the potential to become a significant threat to the economy if higher interest rates and less leverage are not implemented. Gains in Global Real Estate Price are Unusual It appears that the majority of people are under the impression that real estate prices go up when interest rates go down. When the first signs of a recession appeared, it was obvious that this was an excellent time to purchase a house. Before the most recent economic downturn, this was never the situation at all. In the past forty years, when the economy has entered a recession, home prices have followed suit and fallen. The researchers discovered that this decrease, which follows an economic shock, typically lasts for four quarters. Home prices shot up during the pandemic and completely disregarded the slump that was occurring at the same time. The researchers wrote that there was not even a temporary drop, and the tone of their writing almost sounds shocked. In addition, a phenomenon known as credit contraction took place during this most recent economic downturn. Or, more specifically, an insufficient amount of credit contraction. In times of economic hardship, individuals typically cut back on the amount of debt they are carrying. However, rather than taking a step back, central banks poured massive amounts of liquidity into the market. They flooded the market with cheap credit, which led to an increase in the number of liabilities being carried. It’s possible that this was the only recession in history from which households emerged even more financially stretched than before. It would be understating the extent of how unusual this path was for home prices during a recession. Global Home Prices Surged As Easy Money and Investors Flooded The Market According to the study, global real estate prices increased for several reasons. After the caused recession, economies recovered far faster than projected. There were few opportunities to spend your spare money, therefore household savings surged. The financial aid was helpful, but its overuse may have produced a moral hazard. Supply chain constraints are real, and they might contribute to inflation. Even so, none of these factors had much of an impact on housing values when compared to… anyone? Bueller? Bueller? That’s correct, it’s easy money. The idea essentially consisted of flooding the financial sector with cheap and easy debt. Some people made educated guesses at first and didn’t make any modifications until two years afterward. To call it imprecise would be an understatement. Housing demand soared in most Western economies as a result of the cheap money. “Above all, exceptionally easy financing conditions have boosted demand for housing further amid the strong liquid asset positions of households and support from other factors,” the researchers wrote. “Households looking to be owner-occupiers can borrow at historically low nominal and real interest rates. In addition, gross rental yields are well above bond market returns in AEs, turning dwellings into attractive assets, including in the buy-to-let segment,” explains the researchers Cheap loans didn’t merely stimulate owner-occupied home sales, as per the narration. Investors recognized an arbitrage opportunity to take a loan at low rates and transform it into rental yield. It’s an element of yield hunting, a practice that skyrocketed in growth during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) (GFC). Due to low market bond rates, investors were obliged to convert Millennial rent payments into regular payments. Following the 2020 Rate Cut Extravaganza, the investor tendency accelerated. Investors now account for more than a quarter of house sales in countries like Canada. A quick search on TikTok reveals a plethora of popular accounts detailing how to make real estate investments. How could they leave this chance? “The inflation-hedging features of housing may also have had a role,” the BIS says. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, this was a popular housing strategy. Some people were fortunate in escaping rising inflation and interest rates. Normalization of inflation quickly turned the bubble into a disaster. Let us now turn our attention to dangers. Synchronization of global real estate prices is usually bad news. Global synchronization of property prices was detected by BIS analysts, which is never a good omen. We’ve discussed synchronization previously, but the point is that it occurs when assets begin to behave similarly. It’s characterized by a non-productive economy with plenty of cash but inadequate parking spaces. Everything inflates when there is so much money that can’t be navigated properly. In this situation, it makes no difference if the home is in a suburb or a city, Vancouver or Poughkeepsie, because values are growing. When it comes to financing, synchronization nearly always equals increased risk. When assets share the same driver, they tend to behave similarly. It’s the polar opposite of diversification, which spreads risk and reduces damage. Synchronization converts an asset group into a cascade of dominoes, each one waiting for the next to fall. “… the international synchronization of house prices has strengthened. More than 60% of house price movements can now be explained by a common global factor. One reason for this much higher synchronization is that the pandemic has been truly global, thus inducing similar policy reactions and flattening yield curves worldwide,” wrote the researchers. In other words, property values in these areas were driven by monetary policy. It wasn’t local characteristics that created

Central banks blamed for majority of global real estate price increase What factors are contributing to the rise in global property prices? Well, it’s all about the money. This is a condensed version of the findings from the study conducted by the Bank of International Settlements (BIS). The Bank for International Settlements (BIS), which is known as the central bank for central banks, recently issued a warning the risks to global home prices are being formed. According to the findings of their researchers, the majority of the progress made since 2020 can be attributed to monetary policy. A synchronization risk was created as a result of countries adopting policies that were similar to one another. These risks have the potential to become a significant threat to the economy if higher interest rates and less leverage are not implemented. Gains in Global Real Estate Price are Unusual It appears that the majority of people are under the impression that real estate prices go up when interest rates go down. When the first signs of a recession appeared, it was obvious that this was an excellent time to purchase a house. Before the most recent economic downturn, this was never the situation at all. In the past forty years, when the economy has entered a recession, home prices have followed suit and fallen. The researchers discovered that this decrease, which follows an economic shock, typically lasts for four quarters. Home prices shot up during the pandemic and completely disregarded the slump that was occurring at the same time. The researchers wrote that there was not even a temporary drop, and the tone of their writing almost sounds shocked. In addition, a phenomenon known as credit contraction took place during this most recent economic downturn. Or, more specifically, an insufficient amount of credit contraction. In times of economic hardship, individuals typically cut back on the amount of debt they are carrying. However, rather than taking a step back, central banks poured massive amounts of liquidity into the market. They flooded the market with cheap credit, which led to an increase in the number of liabilities being carried. It’s possible that this was the only recession in history from which households emerged even more financially stretched than before. It would be understating the extent of how unusual this path was for home prices during a recession. Global Home Prices Surged As Easy Money and Investors Flooded The Market According to the study, global real estate prices increased for several reasons. After the caused recession, economies recovered far faster than projected. There were few opportunities to spend your spare money, therefore household savings surged. The financial aid was helpful, but its overuse may have produced a moral hazard. Supply chain constraints are real, and they might contribute to inflation. Even so, none of these factors had much of an impact on housing values when compared to… anyone? Bueller? Bueller? That’s correct, it’s easy money. The idea essentially consisted of flooding the financial sector with cheap and easy debt. Some people made educated guesses at first and didn’t make any modifications until two years afterward. To call it imprecise would be an understatement. Housing demand soared in most Western economies as a result of the cheap money. “Above all, exceptionally easy financing conditions have boosted demand for housing further amid the strong liquid asset positions of households and support from other factors,” the researchers wrote. “Households looking to be owner-occupiers can borrow at historically low nominal and real interest rates. In addition, gross rental yields are well above bond market returns in AEs, turning dwellings into attractive assets, including in the buy-to-let segment,” explains the researchers Cheap loans didn’t merely stimulate owner-occupied home sales, as per the narration. Investors recognized an arbitrage opportunity to take a loan at low rates and transform it into rental yield. It’s an element of yield hunting, a practice that skyrocketed in growth during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) (GFC). Due to low market bond rates, investors were obliged to convert Millennial rent payments into regular payments. Following the 2020 Rate Cut Extravaganza, the investor tendency accelerated. Investors now account for more than a quarter of house sales in countries like Canada. A quick search on TikTok reveals a plethora of popular accounts detailing how to make real estate investments. How could they leave this chance? “The inflation-hedging features of housing may also have had a role,” the BIS says. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, this was a popular housing strategy. Some people were fortunate in escaping rising inflation and interest rates. Normalization of inflation quickly turned the bubble into a disaster. Let us now turn our attention to dangers. Synchronization of global real estate prices is usually bad news. Global synchronization of property prices was detected by BIS analysts, which is never a good omen. We’ve discussed synchronization previously, but the point is that it occurs when assets begin to behave similarly. It’s characterized by a non-productive economy with plenty of cash but inadequate parking spaces. Everything inflates when there is so much money that can’t be navigated properly. In this situation, it makes no difference if the home is in a suburb or a city, Vancouver or Poughkeepsie, because values are growing. When it comes to financing, synchronization nearly always equals increased risk. When assets share the same driver, they tend to behave similarly. It’s the polar opposite of diversification, which spreads risk and reduces damage. Synchronization converts an asset group into a cascade of dominoes, each one waiting for the next to fall. “… the international synchronization of house prices has strengthened. More than 60% of house price movements can now be explained by a common global factor. One reason for this much higher synchronization is that the pandemic has been truly global, thus inducing similar policy reactions and flattening yield curves worldwide,” wrote the researchers. In other words, property values in these areas were driven by monetary policy. It wasn’t local characteristics that created