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High mortgage rates to overwhelm Canadian housing

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High mortgage rates to overwhelm Canadian housing Canada and The real estate Industry have always walked hand in hand and soared high profits when it came to output. An all-time high housing market burns red with ultimately no sign of cooling down. From 2021 to February 2022 the real estate market in Canada bagged a solid profit because of the purchase of around roughly 552,000 homes. Despite such an increase and heavy profit rate, the real estate industry of Canada is worried about the future market rate of housing in Canada. It has become an ironic situation, with the government promising to double the housing production and cutting the costs to make housing affordable through the release of the fiscal budget meanwhile the market and mortgage rates are hitting an all-time high and are expected to escalate more during near summers. Such a condition really tells that there will not only be a shortage of housing possibilities but also warns about the phase where housing will be available for none. Price hike The end of 2021 concluded around a 19 percent rise in the prices above the borrowing capacity of a median- Canadian household. Such a rate is expected to rise to a 30 percent or more in the near future making housing in Canada a dream far-fetched. The reason for such a hike in pricing is mere because the supply is always low but the demand keeps increasing in the country. Low bank interest rates are just another crackle in the fire that will keep increasing the demand and the mortgage rates along with it. Rising Mortgage Rates The Government of Canada 5 Year Bond closed at the most elevated level in a decade nowadays. Five Year yields are critical to a genuine domain, affecting one of the key contract rates. As a result, Canadians ought to anticipate paying the most elevated contract intrigued in a decade — and these rates are fair getting begun. Bond yields impact the mortgage as well as the interest debt in the real estate industry. The hot red pricing of the 5-year bond yield has become the reason for worry in the estate market because such a bond yield directs the 5 years fixed mortgage. It has been a record, that the Canadian 5-year bond yield has not taken this big a leap since April 2011. Due to such conditions, the Canadian 5-year mortgage rates are also at an all-time high resulting in a 17 percent drop in the buyer estimate. The five-year fixed mortgage was relatively the preferred plan for buyers until a year before but now the buyers will seek new and variable buying options with different ranges of the mortgage. This leaves a gap in the market contributing to higher levels of inflation. Recently the bank hiked 0.5 percent of the interest rates which will invariably result in nothing since the demand soars up but the supply to suffice higher demand is not nearly abundant. A lot of buyers are now indifferent to the price hike since the interest rates are lower even than the pre-pandemic rates. The real estate market will be in a slump as the properties are decreasing and the number of buyers running to buy the estate is high. With this there is the expectation of a solid hike in interest rate which is instigating the buyers to buy in today, colling down an all-time hot-selling real estate market. This would not only result in higher prices and lower demands in the future but also a scarcity of property until the government’s housing plan comes to the rescue in real-time. But is the Government’s housing plan a tangible asset, well the economists say otherwise. An entirely new perspective While the distress of the real estate market is evident Canada’s president Christopher Alexander feels a cooling down of the market won’t happen. In an interview when asked about the rising prices and mortgage rates the Canadian president was heard saying “It will take some froth out, which I think we would all enjoy. But I think the market will adjust demand is still incredibly strong and Canadians really believe in the value of homeownership. So I think that will still continue to see people wanting to buy, just might take them a little bit longer than they had hoped.” Conclusion The fate of housing in Canada is dismal from some perspectives while ambitious from others, the future will only hold the decision of the winning perspective. Related posts. A collaboration on transit-oriented communities by admin123 High mortgage rates to overwhelm Canadian housing by admin123 Toronto’s Next Big Development Project: The Humber Bay- Lake Shore Site by admin123 A hit in the record price of $1.25 Million for the GTA Condos by admin123 Home Costs in Canada Reach a New Record: Current Scenario and Predictions. by admin123 10 million homes required in Ontario in next 10 years by admin123

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CIBC: Housing deficiencies linked to undercounted demand

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CIBC: Housing deficiencies linked to undercounted demand Even though interest rates are moving higher, some economists think that a change in rates won’t have much of an impact on the housing market until something is done to address Canada’s chronic supply issue. This is because interest rates are negatively correlated with home prices. Benjamin Tal, managing director and deputy chief economist at CIBC Capital Markets, and Katherine Judge, director, and senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets, recently collaborated on a new article for In Focus with CIBC Capital Markets in which they explained why an increase in interest rates might not necessarily help the struggling housing market. There has already been a reaction in the market as a result of increasing borrowing costs; nonetheless, this will not solve the problems associated with housing affordability. Instead, a pause in market activity may simply alleviate symptoms or “worsen the supply-demand imbalance in the market.” “Entering a more relaxed housing environment should not ease the urgency in which the chronic lack of housing supply in the Canadian market is dealt with,” said the In Focus report. “After years of fighting supply issues using demand tools, governments at all levels finally recognize that over time, the housing affordability crisis will worsen without adequate supply policies.” The question then is, what causes the problem with the supply? Both Tal and Judge pointed the finger at the faulty methodology that was used to formulate housing policy as well as the industry’s inability to satisfy provincial and federal housing goals as a part of the problem. Comparison of Canadian Housing to others Comparison of Canadian housing performance to other countries is an overly simplistic method to use when attempting to evaluate the state of the housing market in Canada. A comparison between the housing stock and the population is typically done using the database maintained by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), which is used in order to present a picture of the housing supply difficulties that Canada faces on an international scale. Comparing Canada to other countries was the approach that was taken for the drafting of the federal budget for 2022. This comparison, on the other hand, is susceptible to oversimplification due to the fact that variations in household formation and demographics can cloud its conclusions. According to the economists working with CIBC, “Furthermore, taking housing stock as a share of the population doesn’t account for differences in demographics or cultural preferences that shape household sizes or formation rates.” “Nor does it account for the different propensity to rent, as countries with higher shares of renters generally have more abundant housing supply.” the report states. Even when the housing market in Canada is compared to that in the United States, the results may not be realistic. According to Judge and Tal, both countries have housing stock that is comparable when measured against the norms of the OECD. However, this does not explain why property prices in Canada have increased at a rate that is twice as fast as those in the United States during the previous 20 years. According to the reports, “These shortcomings of international comparisons suggest that it’s more informative to look at Canada’s housing market in isolation to determine what’s behind the market’s imbalance” Inadequate picture of demands due to undercounting of households Tal and Judge highlighted that household formation is the most important element to evaluate when it comes to estimating the demand for housing; yet, the statistics that they provide are typically not correct. The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) collects data on household formation by converting population growth into the number of households using the quality of households formed from a given number of individuals and then translating that number back into population growth. On the other hand, some information is being lost in the translation, which is leading to a “gross underestimate of the real number of households in Canada, and thus demand for housing.” “And if demand is undercounted, then of course the supply released by municipalities to meet that demand will be inadequate,” explained the report. For instance, the Demographic Division of Statistics Canada counts all individuals whose non-permanent residence visas have expired and who are still in the nation as having departed the country 30 days after their visas have expired. Nevertheless, during the epidemic, non-permanent residents who had expired visas were allowed to stay in the country through extensions. This means that those people are not included in any official figures, despite the fact that they still require housing. In a different example, Tal and Judge said that the estimates done by CMHC assume the same headship rate for new immigrants, non-permanent residents, and long-term residents. According to Tal and Judge’s estimation, the existing need for housing is undercounted by 500,000 households. Limitations imposed on the industry to meet the demands of housing The issue of housing supply in Canada “is serious and needs action” as implied by the undercounting of the demand for homes. Tal and Judge emphasized that although there is no shortage of ideas to generate housing, not enough attention is being paid to the reality that the industry’s means to meet higher housing targets is limited. The rise in the typical amount of time needed to finish a building project is one facet of the problem. “It takes twice as long to complete both low-rise and high-rise units today than it did two decades ago. And a lack of labour supply is a major cause of those delays,” said the report. “While large developers are usually able to secure their own labour pool, that’s not the case for mid-sized and small operators that account for 30 to 40 percent of activity.” Competition for labourers has intensified as a result of large-scale infrastructure projects, an issue that has become even more difficult as a result of shortages imposed by COVID-19. The construction industry did not return to its pre-pandemic employment levels until January 2022. This was a

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A hint on change in Canada’s ‘stress test’ rules before year’s end

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A hint on change in Canada’s ‘stress test’ rules before year’s end Mortgage brokers argue that given the slowdown in the housing market, the Canadian banking regulator should relax its “stress test” qualifying rate for mortgages and make it easier to qualify for a mortgage. This week, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions issued a statement in which it alluded to the possibility that it might make “adjustments” to its qualifying rate before the end of the year. A review of the qualifying rate is performed by the regulator and then communicated to the general public every December, in advance of the hectic spring housing season that follows the following year. This week, however, the office, which is an independent federal agency that is responsible for supervising hundreds of financial institutions and over a thousand pension plans in Canada, suggested that an announcement may be forthcoming before the end of this year. According to a statement released by the regulatory body on Thursday,“Throughout the rest of the year, OSFI continually monitors the Canadian housing market and mortgage practices, and may make adjustments at any point if necessary for the health of the Canadian lending industry.” Some people working in the real estate industry see this as a sign that the office ought to take action and, in all likelihood, will do so given the rise in interest rates that has occurred this year and the resulting decrease in home sales. The most recent statistics released by the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board indicate that the housing market in the region reached its highest point in the month of February when houses and condos sold for an average of $1.33 million. The average price in the region dropped to $1.25 million as a result of a number of factors, including the Bank of Canada’s decision to raise interest rates in April and the expectation that they will do so again soon. Despite this, prices are still 15% higher than they were at this time last year. “The market is softening, prices are coming down. They (OSFI) did the stress test to cool the market. They don’t need any cooling of the market anymore. It’s already there now,” said mortgage broker Kim Gibbons. In order to avoid having to pay for mortgage insurance, homebuyers are required by the rules to demonstrate that they are able to afford mortgage payments at an interest rate of 5.25 percent or their mortgage contract rate plus two percent, whichever is higher. Homebuyers who have made a minimum down payment of 20 percent are exempt from this requirement. They were implemented in 2016 and 2017 with the goal of reducing overall market activity and preventing buyers from feeling overly pressured by rising interest rates. According to comments made by mortgage brokers in Thursday’s edition of the Star, the current average interest rate for mortgages with fixed terms of five years ranges from 4.19 to 4.25 percent. A borrower would need to demonstrate that they are capable of paying an interest rate that is as high as 6.25 percent in order to qualify for a loan with the requirement of a two percent plus contract. Gibbons believes that this is unreasonable and that it “doesn’t make sense” given the current state of affairs. “As things stand now they have got to do something,” Gibbons added. “Clients are going to alternative sources of lenders, credit unions where you don’t have to do two percent above the contract rate to qualify. People can qualify with credit unions much easier,” she said. “The stress test takes away about 20 percent of your purchasing power. Not always, but that’s kind of the rule.”Mortgage broker True North Mortgage, headquartered in Toronto, and its chief executive officer Dan Eisner are both of the opinions that the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions will step in before the end of the year. According to Eisner if the “If the current housing market continues on a downward trend in home prices, that will give a lot of headroom to OSFI to reduce the stress test rate and requirements for the contract rate plus two percent before the end of the year.” ”I wouldn’t be surprised if they just eliminate the contract rate plus a two percent portion of the stress test; it’s a bit too aggressive. It doesn’t make sense when the fixed rates are in the four percent levels,” Eisner said. Related posts. Expert’s Reaction to the increasing rates by the Bank of Canada by admin123 Living in Main Floors- A Great matter of importance for Aging Canadians who want a Pleasant Life Ahead by admin123 National home prices historically higher, listings terribly low by admin123 Housing prices kicks off, stuck historically high, but trended lower in January by admin123 Soleil Condominiums by Mattamay to beam in Milton by admin123 As home prices rise, Ford wants to approve developments as soon as possible by admin123

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Highest Inflation in Canada since MC Hammer’s 2 Legit 2 Quit release

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Highest Inflation in Canada since MC Hammer’s 2 Legit 2 Quit release Households in Canada are currently facing the highest level of inflation seen in a whole generation. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the month of April was just released by Statistics Canada (Stats Can). The agency places the recent acceleration, which sent growth to the highest level since the early 1990s, on the shoulders of the need for food and shelter. Although there are those who are predicting that growth has reached its peak, leading analysts on Wall Street do not see this happening in the upcoming report. The inflation rate in Canada has reached 6.8 percent, marking its highest level since 1991. The annual rate of inflation in Canada went up once more, although the rate of increase was lower than in recent months. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew at an annual rate of 6.8 percent in April, up just 0.1 points from the previous month. It had the highest read count ever recorded, dating back to September 1991. To put it another way, if you are under the age of 30, you have never witnessed how your cost of living has increased. Inflation in Canada was Driven by the Cost of Food and Shelter During the Past Month According to Stat Can, the majority of the most recent increase can be attributed to increases in the cost of food and housing. Food prices rose by 9.7 percent in April, marking the period since September 1981 during which they have increased at the fastest rate. According to the agency, this marked the fifth consecutive month in which the food component scored more than 5 points. As a result of disruptions in the supply chain, including restrictions on exports, it is not likely to drop anytime soon. The majority of Canadians are aware that the cost of housing is going up, but the increase in CPI is not due to the reason you might think it is. The agency reported that the annual rate of inflation for housing costs reached its highest level since 1983 in the month of April, reaching 7.4 percent. The majority of the increases can be attributed to higher fuel costs, such as those for heating and cooling. The costs of home replacement for homeowners are also climbing at a lofty rate of 13.0 percent, which is a proxy for new homes. “The prior boom in home prices is now aggressively working its way into CPI, with new home prices and “other owned accommodation expenses” (mostly real estate fees) the two single biggest drivers last month,” said Douglas Porter, Chief Economist at BMO. The Next Inflation Report Is Expected to Show Rapid Acceleration In April, the annual growth rate only increased by 0.1 points, which is a tenth of the increase in CPI that was seen in March. Although this may point to a moderation in future expansion, the consensus on Bay Street this morning is not to that effect. BMO Capital Markets issued a warning to its clients that the relatively slow month was just a temporary blip. According to Porter’s explanation, “… this is the relative calm before another downpour in next month’s report, as gasoline prices are tracking a double-digit increase for May alone.” Additionally, the National Bank of Canada (NBF) issued a warning that the tight labour market poses a threat to inflation. According to Matthieu Arseneau, the deputy chief economist at the National Bank of Canada (NBF), “In an environment where the labor market is extremely tight with the unemployment rate at a record low, workers are well-positioned to ask for compensation, which should translate into relatively high inflation in services,” In addition, “For these reasons, the Central Bank must continue its fast-paced process of normalizing interest rates, which are still far too accommodating for the economic situation.” When allowed to continue, high inflation evolves into a problem that is both more extensive and more challenging to address. Once wages start adjusting to the levels of inflation, the potential for “transitory” employment will no longer exist. The general trend is for higher wages to result in higher consumer prices, which can contribute to higher levels of inflation. Getting out of a downward spiral of inflation is extremely challenging, and the top brass at RBC has warned about the issue.   Related posts. Expert’s Reaction to the increasing rates by the Bank of Canada by admin123 Living in Main Floors- A Great matter of importance for Aging Canadians who want a Pleasant Life Ahead by admin123 National home prices historically higher, listings terribly low by admin123 Housing prices kicks off, stuck historically high, but trended lower in January by admin123 Soleil Condominiums by Mattamay to beam in Milton by admin123 As home prices rise, Ford wants to approve developments as soon as possible by admin123

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Growth in Canadian real estate prices may stall within the next three months

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Growth in Canadian real estate prices may stall within the next three months After being derailed by higher rates, the record run of the Canadian real estate market is quickly coming to an end. According to a recent research note published by BMO, the national sales to new listings ratio (SNLR) decreased in the month of April. This indicator acts as a leading price indicator by measuring supply in relation to demand. According to BMO, the real estate market in Canada can anticipate prices to compete with those in the country’s largest market, which may see price growth disappear within the next three months. Inventory Levels in Canadian Real Estate Markets Are Almost at a Balanced Level The sale to new listings ratio, also known as the SNLR, is a method for evaluating the relative levels of inventory. It is the proportion of homes that have been sold relative to the total number of homes that have been recently listed for sale. When the SNLR is higher, it indicates that there is less space for inventory in comparison to the amount of buying activity. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has collected data that demonstrates an abrupt decline in the ratio. In April, the SNLR came in at 66 percent, which is significantly lower than the average of 76 percent seen over the course of the previous year. According to BMO, the market is on the verge of becoming balanced as a result of this healthy decline. At the national level, there has been a sudden transition from a hot market to a balanced market. However, the Greater Toronto Area market has the lowest ratio of any market in the country. Surprisingly, Canada has the weakest relative demand for real estate despite having one of the largest real estate bubbles in the world. The Real Estate Market in Toronto Is the Biggest in Canada, but It’s Beginning to Level Off According to BMO, one of the most important real estate markets to keep an eye on is Greater Toronto. The seasonally adjusted national listing ratio (SNLR) for Canada’s largest real estate market dropped to just 45 percent in April, putting it dangerously close to the bottom of a balanced market and inching closer to a seller’s market. According to the findings of the bank’s study, the regional SNLR has been on average 70 percent over the course of the past year. The disappearance of the Home price growth in 3 months  The industry utilizes SNLR to measure the price growth in homes and this measure is mainly confirmed by the BMO. “Decades of history show that this ratio is an excellent leading indicator for average transaction prices, leading prices by about three months,” said BMO chief economist Douglas Porter. “…what the ratio is now telling us is that prices are about to go from 20%+ gains to a sudden stall. And that’s assuming the sales/listings ratio doesn’t fall further in coming months.” As interest rate hikes have only gotten us halfway to neutral, it is likely that the SNLR will fall even further. At the beginning of this week, economists from a number of different financial institutions issued a warning to investors that the slowdown in the market is just getting started.   Related posts. Expert’s Reaction to the increasing rates by the Bank of Canada by admin123 Living in Main Floors- A Great matter of importance for Aging Canadians who want a Pleasant Life Ahead by admin123 National home prices historically higher, listings terribly low by admin123 Housing prices kicks off, stuck historically high, but trended lower in January by admin123 Soleil Condominiums by Mattamay to beam in Milton by admin123 As home prices rise, Ford wants to approve developments as soon as possible by admin123

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CIBC: Housing deficiencies linked to undercounted demand

Blogs / / / , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

CIBC: Housing deficiencies linked to undercounted demand Even though interest rates are moving higher, some economists think that a change in rates won’t have much of an impact on the housing market until something is done to address Canada’s chronic supply issue. This is because interest rates are negatively correlated with home prices. Benjamin Tal, managing director and deputy chief economist at CIBC Capital Markets, and Katherine Judge, director, and senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets, recently collaborated on a new article for In Focus with CIBC Capital Markets in which they explained why an increase in interest rates might not necessarily help the struggling housing market. There has already been a reaction in the market as a result of increasing borrowing costs; nonetheless, this will not solve the problems associated with housing affordability. Instead, a pause in market activity may simply alleviate symptoms or “worsen the supply-demand imbalance in the market.” “Entering a more relaxed housing environment should not ease the urgency in which the chronic lack of housing supply in the Canadian market is dealt with,” said the In Focus report. “After years of fighting supply issues using demand tools, governments at all levels finally recognize that over time, the housing affordability crisis will worsen without adequate supply policies.” The question then is, what causes the problem with the supply? Both Tal and Judge pointed the finger at the faulty methodology that was used to formulate housing policy as well as the industry’s inability to satisfy provincial and federal housing goals as a part of the problem. Comparison of Canadian Housing to others Comparison of Canadian housing performance to other countries is an overly simplistic method to use when attempting to evaluate the state of the housing market in Canada. A comparison between the housing stock and the population is typically done using the database maintained by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), which is used in order to present a picture of the housing supply difficulties that Canada faces on an international scale. Comparing Canada to other countries was the approach that was taken for the drafting of the federal budget for 2022. This comparison, on the other hand, is susceptible to oversimplification due to the fact that variations in household formation and demographics can cloud its conclusions. According to the economists working with CIBC, “Furthermore, taking housing stock as a share of the population doesn’t account for differences in demographics or cultural preferences that shape household sizes or formation rates.” “Nor does it account for the different propensity to rent, as countries with higher shares of renters generally have more abundant housing supply.” the report states. Even when the housing market in Canada is compared to that in the United States, the results may not be realistic. According to Judge and Tal, both countries have housing stock that is comparable when measured against the norms of the OECD. However, this does not explain why property prices in Canada have increased at a rate that is twice as fast as those in the United States during the previous 20 years. According to the reports, “These shortcomings of international comparisons suggest that it’s more informative to look at Canada’s housing market in isolation to determine what’s behind the market’s imbalance” Inadequate picture of demands due to undercounting of households Tal and Judge highlighted that household formation is the most important element to evaluate when it comes to estimating the demand for housing; yet, the statistics that they provide are typically not correct. The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) collects data on household formation by converting population growth into the number of households using the quality of households formed from a given number of individuals and then translating that number back into population growth. On the other hand, some information is being lost in the translation, which is leading to a “gross underestimate of the real number of households in Canada, and thus demand for housing.” “And if demand is undercounted, then of course the supply released by municipalities to meet that demand will be inadequate,” explained the report. For instance, the Demographic Division of Statistics Canada counts all individuals whose non-permanent residence visas have expired and who are still in the nation as having departed the country 30 days after their visas have expired. Nevertheless, during the epidemic, non-permanent residents who had expired visas were allowed to stay in the country through extensions. This means that those people are not included in any official figures, despite the fact that they still require housing. In a different example, Tal and Judge said that the estimates done by CMHC assume the same headship rate for new immigrants, non-permanent residents, and long-term residents. According to Tal and Judge’s estimation, the existing need for housing is undercounted by 500,000 households. Limitations imposed on the industry to meet the demands of housing The issue of housing supply in Canada “is serious and needs action” as implied by the undercounting of the demand for homes. Tal and Judge emphasized that although there is no shortage of ideas to generate housing, not enough attention is being paid to the reality that the industry’s means to meet higher housing targets is limited. The rise in the typical amount of time needed to finish a building project is one facet of the problem. “It takes twice as long to complete both low-rise and high-rise units today than it did two decades ago. And a lack of labour supply is a major cause of those delays,” said the report. “While large developers are usually able to secure their own labour pool, that’s not the case for mid-sized and small operators that account for 30 to 40 percent of activity.” Competition for labourers has intensified as a result of large-scale infrastructure projects, an issue that has become even more difficult as a result of shortages imposed by COVID-19. The construction industry did not return to its pre-pandemic employment levels until January 2022. This was a

CIBC: Housing deficiencies linked to undercounted demand Read More »

Growth in Canadian real estate prices may stall within the next three months

Blogs / / / , , , , , , , , , ,

Growth in Canadian real estate prices may stall within the next three months After being derailed by higher rates, the record run of the Canadian real estate market is quickly coming to an end. According to a recent research note published by BMO, the national sales to new listings ratio (SNLR) decreased in the month of April. This indicator acts as a leading price indicator by measuring supply in relation to demand. According to BMO, the real estate market in Canada can anticipate prices to compete with those in the country’s largest market, which may see price growth disappear within the next three months. Inventory Levels in Canadian Real Estate Markets Are Almost at a Balanced Level The sale to new listings ratio, also known as the SNLR, is a method for evaluating the relative levels of inventory. It is the proportion of homes that have been sold relative to the total number of homes that have been recently listed for sale. When the SNLR is higher, it indicates that there is less space for inventory in comparison to the amount of buying activity. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has collected data that demonstrates an abrupt decline in the ratio. In April, the SNLR came in at 66 percent, which is significantly lower than the average of 76 percent seen over the course of the previous year. According to BMO, the market is on the verge of becoming balanced as a result of this healthy decline. At the national level, there has been a sudden transition from a hot market to a balanced market. However, the Greater Toronto Area market has the lowest ratio of any market in the country. Surprisingly, Canada has the weakest relative demand for real estate despite having one of the largest real estate bubbles in the world. The Real Estate Market in Toronto Is the Biggest in Canada, but It’s Beginning to Level Off According to BMO, one of the most important real estate markets to keep an eye on is Greater Toronto. The seasonally adjusted national listing ratio (SNLR) for Canada’s largest real estate market dropped to just 45 percent in April, putting it dangerously close to the bottom of a balanced market and inching closer to a seller’s market. According to the findings of the bank’s study, the regional SNLR has been on average 70 percent over the course of the past year. The disappearance of the Home price growth in 3 months The industry utilizes SNLR to measure the price growth in homes and this measure is mainly confirmed by the BMO. “Decades of history show that this ratio is an excellent leading indicator for average transaction prices, leading prices by about three months,” said BMO chief economist Douglas Porter. “…what the ratio is now telling us is that prices are about to go from 20%+ gains to a sudden stall. And that’s assuming the sales/listings ratio doesn’t fall further in coming months.” As interest rate hikes have only gotten us halfway to neutral, it is likely that the SNLR will fall even further. At the beginning of this week, economists from a number of different financial institutions issued a warning to investors that the slowdown in the market is just getting started. Related posts. Expert’s Reaction to the increasing rates by the Bank of Canada by admin123 Living in Main Floors- A Great matter of importance for Aging Canadians who want a Pleasant Life Ahead by admin123 National home prices historically higher, listings terribly low by admin123 Housing prices kicks off, stuck historically high, but trended lower in January by admin123 Soleil Condominiums by Mattamay to beam in Milton by admin123 As home prices rise, Ford wants to approve developments as soon as possible by admin123

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A hint on change in Canada’s ‘stress test’ rules before year’s end

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A hint on change in Canada’s ‘stress test’ rules before year’s end Mortgage brokers argue that given the slowdown in the housing market, the Canadian banking regulator should relax its “stress test” qualifying rate for mortgages and make it easier to qualify for a mortgage. This week, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions issued a statement in which it alluded to the possibility that it might make “adjustments” to its qualifying rate before the end of the year. A review of the qualifying rate is performed by the regulator and then communicated to the general public every December, in advance of the hectic spring housing season that follows the following year. This week, however, the office, which is an independent federal agency that is responsible for supervising hundreds of financial institutions and over a thousand pension plans in Canada, suggested that an announcement may be forthcoming before the end of this year. According to a statement released by the regulatory body on Thursday,“Throughout the rest of the year, OSFI continually monitors the Canadian housing market and mortgage practices, and may make adjustments at any point if necessary for the health of the Canadian lending industry.” Some people working in the real estate industry see this as a sign that the office ought to take action and, in all likelihood, will do so given the rise in interest rates that has occurred this year and the resulting decrease in home sales. The most recent statistics released by the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board indicate that the housing market in the region reached its highest point in the month of February when houses and condos sold for an average of $1.33 million. The average price in the region dropped to $1.25 million as a result of a number of factors, including the Bank of Canada’s decision to raise interest rates in April and the expectation that they will do so again soon. Despite this, prices are still 15% higher than they were at this time last year. “The market is softening, prices are coming down. They (OSFI) did the stress test to cool the market. They don’t need any cooling of the market anymore. It’s already there now,” said mortgage broker Kim Gibbons. In order to avoid having to pay for mortgage insurance, homebuyers are required by the rules to demonstrate that they are able to afford mortgage payments at an interest rate of 5.25 percent or their mortgage contract rate plus two percent, whichever is higher. Homebuyers who have made a minimum down payment of 20 percent are exempt from this requirement. They were implemented in 2016 and 2017 with the goal of reducing overall market activity and preventing buyers from feeling overly pressured by rising interest rates. According to comments made by mortgage brokers in Thursday’s edition of the Star, the current average interest rate for mortgages with fixed terms of five years ranges from 4.19 to 4.25 percent. A borrower would need to demonstrate that they are capable of paying an interest rate that is as high as 6.25 percent in order to qualify for a loan with the requirement of a two percent plus contract. Gibbons believes that this is unreasonable and that it “doesn’t make sense” given the current state of affairs. “As things stand now they have got to do something,” Gibbons added. “Clients are going to alternative sources of lenders, credit unions where you don’t have to do two percent above the contract rate to qualify. People can qualify with credit unions much easier,” she said. “The stress test takes away about 20 percent of your purchasing power. Not always, but that’s kind of the rule.”Mortgage broker True North Mortgage, headquartered in Toronto, and its chief executive officer Dan Eisner are both of the opinions that the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions will step in before the end of the year. According to Eisner if the “If the current housing market continues on a downward trend in home prices, that will give a lot of headroom to OSFI to reduce the stress test rate and requirements for the contract rate plus two percent before the end of the year.” ”I wouldn’t be surprised if they just eliminate the contract rate plus a two percent portion of the stress test; it’s a bit too aggressive. It doesn’t make sense when the fixed rates are in the four percent levels,” Eisner said. Related posts. Expert’s Reaction to the increasing rates by the Bank of Canada by admin123 Living in Main Floors- A Great matter of importance for Aging Canadians who want a Pleasant Life Ahead by admin123 National home prices historically higher, listings terribly low by admin123 Housing prices kicks off, stuck historically high, but trended lower in January by admin123 Soleil Condominiums by Mattamay to beam in Milton by admin123 As home prices rise, Ford wants to approve developments as soon as possible by admin123

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April witnessed a fall in home sales as mortgage rates increase

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April witnessed a fall in home sales as mortgage rates increase The Canadian Real Estate Association reported on Monday that rising mortgage rates caused a slowdown in the pace of home sales in April compared to the frenetic pace they started the year at. According to the findings of the association, the number of homes sold in May 2022 fell to 54,894 from 73,907 in April 2021, which was the month that the nation set a record for the number of sales in the month. Compared month-over-month, sales in April were down 12.6% when compared with sales in March; however, April still ranked as the third-highest sales figure ever recorded for the month of April, just behind 2021 and 2016. “The demand fever in Canadian housing has broken and, who would have thought, all it took was a nudge in interest rates by the Bank of Canada to change sentiment,” said BMO Capital Markets senior analyst Robert Kavcic, in a note to investors. According to CREA, a significant portion of the slowdown can be attributed to rising fixed mortgage rates, which have been on the rise since 2021 but have had a more significant impact in the most recent months. Over the course of one month, the association noted that the typical discounted five-year fixed rates increased by approximately three to four percent from their previous levels. The rate also has an impact on how well buyers perform on the mortgage stress test. This test used to require buyers with uninsured mortgages — borrowers who had made a down payment of at least 20 percent — to carry a mortgage rate that was either two percentage points above the contract rate or 5.25 percent, whichever was greater. The rate currently has an impact on how well buyers perform on this test. According to CREA, the stress test for fixed borrowers has recently moved from 5.25 percent to the low 6 percent range, which represents another increase of approximately one percent in just one month. “People are nervous. They are thinking, ‘if I take on this mortgage when mortgage rates are going up and the price to (live) is more, what is going to happen?” said Anita Springate-Renaud, a Toronto broker with Engel & Völkers. She observed that many homes were still receiving multiple offers during the previous month, but the typical number of offers was now between two and three rather than twenty. “For buyers, this slowdown could mean more time to consider options in the market,” said Jill Oudil, CREA’s chair, in a news release. It is possible that for sellers, this will necessitate a return to marketing strategies that are more traditional. This shift in sentiment was reflected in the number of newly listed homes, which fell by 2.2 percent to 70,957 last month from 72,557 in March. On a seasonally adjusted basis, this decrease was due to a decrease in the number of newly listed homes. The number of newly listed properties fell to 91,559 in the most recent month, which is a decrease of 10.5% compared to April 2022’s total of 102,294 listings. Despite the fact that the CREA reported a slowdown in sales and a reduction in the number of listings, Canadians spent even more money on homes than they did in 2021. In April, the average price of a home across the nation was just over $746,000. This represents a 7.4 percent increase from the average price of about $695,000 in April of the previous year. The Greater Toronto and Vancouver areas were not included in this calculation, which resulted in a $138,000 decrease in the national average price, according to CREA. On the other hand, when taking into account seasonal factors, the national average home price dropped by 3.8 percent from $771,125 in March to $741,517 in the most recent month. In the most recent month, the home price index benchmark price reached $866,700. This represents a decrease of 0.6% from the previous month, but an increase of 23.76% from one year ago and 63.96% from five years ago. The benchmark price was the least expensive in Saskatchewan, where it amounted to $271,100, and it was the most expensive in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia, where it was greater than $1.3 million. The housing markets in Ontario’s suburbs are the “shakiest” because of the way prices have dropped since their peaks in February, but he said that single-detached homes and townhomes appear to be cooling off the quickest. Related posts. Expert’s Reaction to the increasing rates by the Bank of Canada by admin123 Living in Main Floors- A Great matter of importance for Aging Canadians who want a Pleasant Life Ahead by admin123 National home prices historically higher, listings terribly low by admin123 Housing prices kicks off, stuck historically high, but trended lower in January by admin123 Soleil Condominiums by Mattamay to beam in Milton by admin123 As home prices rise, Ford wants to approve developments as soon as possible by admin123

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