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Expert’s Reaction to the increasing rates by the Bank of Canada

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Expert’s Reaction to the increasing rates by the Bank of Canada The Bank of Canada raised its overnight rate target by 25 basis points to 0.5 percent in its second policy rate announcement of 2022. Economists and industry experts are weighing in on the bank’s decision, which marks the first increase in the mortgage-influencing overnight rate since October 2018. When COVID-19 broke out, the Bank of Canada made three emergency cuts to the overnight rate in March 2020, bringing it down from 1.75 percent in a matter of weeks as the pandemic sent shockwaves through global markets. Until now, the overnight rate has remained at a quarter percent. The Bank of Canada stated in its announcement that Canada’s economic growth has been strong, rising 6.7 per cent in Q4-2021, higher than the bank had predicted and confirming that “economic slack has been absorbed.” Household spending is increasing as a result of the Omicron variant’s rebound, and this trend is expected to continue as more public health restrictions are lifted. However, the Consumer Price Index for inflation is 5.1 percent, well above the Bank of Canada’s inflation target of 2%. Inflation may also arise as a result of the Ukraine conflict and rising commodity prices. “Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine is a big new source of worry,” the bank stated in a news release. “Oil and other commodity prices have skyrocketed.” This will raise global prices, and the negative effects on confidence and fresh supply disruptions may weigh on the global economy. Volatility in the financial markets has risen. The situation is still fluid, and we are keeping a careful eye on developments. As the economy grows and inflationary pressures remain, the Bank of Canada anticipates that interest rates will need to rise further. The next announcement of the overnight rate goal is set for April 13th, 2022. Economic Research at RBC After a near call in January, Josh Nye, senior economist at RBC Economics, noted in a daily economic briefing that there “looked to be a low bar to raise rates.” Even though January’s job data were negative, Nye noted that the labour market has recovered from prior COVID-19 waves, and GDP is expanding. Inflationary pressures are projected to rise further as a result of rising food and energy commodity prices as a result of the Russia-Ukraine war. “The Bank of Canada will have to assess the additional inflationary pressure caused by the war against two-way domestic effects (greater revenue for commodities producers, higher prices for consumers) and worries about the global economic picture.” Normally, central banks would consider geopolitically driven commodity price pressures, but with inflation already well over the goal, the Bank of Canada has stated that it is more concerned about upside risks to inflation than downside ones. Indeed, it stated that ‘consistently rising inflation raises the likelihood that longer-run inflation expectations may rise.’ Aside from inflation projections, the bank will keep a close eye on financial circumstances. Government bond rates have declined as growth fears and risk aversion have increased, while corporate credit spreads have grown. Other financial channels have been rather stable—the Canadian currency has been trading in a narrow range over the last month, and the TSX has performed well in comparison to other equity markets. At this point, we don’t believe geopolitical events prohibit the second rise in April, nor do they argue for the more aggressive tightening path that markets continue to price.” Bank of Montreal (BMO) Another rate rise might be on the way next month, according to Benjamin Reitzes, managing director of Canadian rates and a macro analyst at BMO. If global circumstances do not “further worsen,” April might bring another 25 basis points. “The tone on the domestic economy was fairly positive following yesterday’s better-than-expected Q4 GDP result.” There was considerable momentum coming into 2022, and the year began better than expected. This implies that ‘first-quarter growth is now looking more strong than originally anticipated.’ The Bank recognised growth in housing, household expenditure, and trade, and expressed confidence that employment would recover from the Omicron-induced dip in January. The Russian invasion of Ukraine ‘creates a significant new source of uncertainty.’ The Bank predicts an increase in inflation, while the loss of confidence and additional supply difficulties ‘may weigh on global growth.’ There’s a lot of ambiguity there, and the BoC will be keeping a careful eye on things. Assuming the economy continues on its upward track and inflation remains high (which seems unlikely in the short term), the Bank of Canada ‘expects interest rates will need to increase further.’ This is consistent with the rate increase path narrative and our forecast of another 25 basis point rise at the April meeting. Meanwhile, there have been no adjustments to the balance sheet, while policymakers are considering discontinuing reinvestment and QT.” The TD Economics The Bank of Canada opted to raise the overnight rate today, as “widely predicted,” according to TD Economics senior economist James Orlando. However, the bank’s policy approach is not set in stone, and review may be required if the Russia-Ukraine crisis unfolds. “It occurred at long last. The Bank of Canada has raised its policy rate, possibly kicking off a series of interest rate rises over the next few months. With employment expected to bounce strongly next week and inflation expected to rise further, the necessity for higher interest rates is self-evident.” “The Bank of Canada’s policy path is not fixed.” Financial conditions are tightening as a result of the Russia/Ukraine war. If the spillover becomes more entrenched, greater tightening may be necessary.” CIBC Capital Markets Avery Shenfeld, managing director and chief economist at CIBC Capital Markets, indicated that statistics supporting the economy’s rebound from Omicron and stronger-than-expected growth may be why the BoC opted to raise the overnight rate now rather than in January. “So why now, rather than in January?” The key difference is that, unlike two months ago, the Bank can now point to data indicating that ‘the rebound from Omicron appears to

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April witnessed an increase of 8% in Canada’s housing starts

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April witnessed an increase of 8% in Canada’s housing starts There was an increase of 8 percent in the number of homes that began being constructed in Canada last month, which is an indication that the housing sector in the country is heading in the right direction. According to the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), the trend in housing started to increase to 257,846 units in April from 253,226 units in March, when they had decreased marginally from the previous month. When calculating the trend, a moving average of the monthly Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (SAAR) of housing starts is utilized as the key metric. This parameter is measured over a span of one year and one month. According to Bob Dugan, the Chief Economist of CMHC, “On a trend and monthly SAAR basis, the level of housing starts activity in Canada remains historically high, hovering well above 200,000 units since June 2020 and increased from March to April,” The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) utilizes the trend measure as a supplement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts in order to account for noteworthy changes in monthly estimates and to provide a clearer picture of the anticipated new housing supply. However, extreme caution is required when carrying out the measure in question. The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) issues a warning “In some situations, analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as the multi-unit segment largely drives the market and can vary significantly from one month to the next,” Among Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver, Toronto was the only market to post a decrease in total SAAR starts, which was driven by lower multi-unit and single-detached starts.” This statement was made in reference to the fact that the level of housing starts activity in Canada has remained historically high. The level of housing starts activity in Canada remains at a historically high level, holding far above 200,000 units, according to both the trend and the monthly SAAR basis. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of the total house starts across all Canadian regions in April was 267,330 units, which reflects an increase of 8 percent in comparison to the totals seen in March. In April, the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of total urban starts increased to 245,324 units, which was a ten percent increase from the previous month. While there was only a one percent increase in the number of urban starts for single-family detached homes, there was a 14 percent increase in the number of urban starts for multi-unit structures, which brought the total to 178,092 units. After taking into account the effects that seasonality has, it was estimated that rural beginnings will occur at an annual rate of 22,006 units. At a time when many people blame a lack of supply as the primary perpetrator behind the housing problem in Canada, this is some positive news for the market in Canada. Related posts. Expert’s Reaction to the increasing rates by the Bank of Canada by admin123 Living in Main Floors- A Great matter of importance for Aging Canadians who want a Pleasant Life Ahead by admin123 National home prices historically higher, listings terribly low by admin123 Housing prices kicks off, stuck historically high, but trended lower in January by admin123 Soleil Condominiums by Mattamay to beam in Milton by admin123 As home prices rise, Ford wants to approve developments as soon as possible by admin123

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BMO concerned about the collapes in Canadian real estate

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BMO concerned about the collapes in Canadian real estate Everyone is interested in determining how low real estate prices can go in Canada now that the real estate bubble there has finally started to deflate. Over the course of the weekend, BMO Capital Markets provided clients with an analysis of the topic, including models and historical context. Increasing interest rates will undoubtedly bring about a correction because they will eliminate excessive leverage. Simply to account for the higher borrowing rates, prices will need to fall by a large amount. Concerning how long it will take for the market to recover, the only prior housing bubble in Canada that was nearly this magnitude took 15 years for the market to recover from. Historically, Canadian real estate prices have always adjusted to fundamentals Since the 1980s BMO Research discovered that the cost of housing in Canada has climbed by approximately 3% annually. This is roughly a reflection of inflation, growth in real wages, and lowering interest rates. Remember that low-interest rates handled the majority of the heavy work, so don’t be surprised if it seems like a sharp slope for salaries. Housing often trades at a price that is in line with its liquidity, with the exception of when it’s in the midst of a bubble. People will only pay for something that makes sense to them, to put it in more eloquent terms. This has a direct bearing on the use of leverage in mortgage transactions. The conventional wisdom holds that a reduction in interest rates will make housing more affordable. On the surface, it makes perfect sense: paying less interest means more money can go toward paying down the debt. In point of fact, a decrease in interest rates results in an increase in the amount of leverage available to a buyer. The ability of purchasers to more readily tolerate price increases results in prices rising even more quickly. This is a point that has been emphasised in recent times by the Bank of Canada (BoC), but it appears that many people have ignored it. This will require a more in-depth discussion at another time, but it is essential to comprehend pricing adjustments. The rate of inflation is currently at an all-time high, while mortgage rates have recently fallen to an all-time low. Both of these factors contribute to a faster increase in leverage, which ultimately drives up housing prices. However, according to BMO, a third of today’s housing prices are the result of price fluctuations that have occurred during the past two years alone. That is far higher than low rates, and it is approximately ten times the historic average rate of growth. “We’ve long maintained that demographic and supply-side fundamentals have driven price gains, even in the early stages of COVID-19 alongside some economic adjustments. But, as we warned early last year, more recent price behavior has been driven by excess demand, market psychology and froth,” explained Robert Kavcic, a senior economist at BMO. Increasing interest rates will reduce some of that excess, which is already dampening the enthusiasm of speculators. “So, when we speak of a housing correction, it’s not a question of if, but where, how much, and for how long?” he said. Canadian Real Estate Is 38 Percent Overpriced And Requires A Substantial Decline Just To Accommodate Interest Rates How much will the market for Canadian real estate eventually correct? Home prices are approximately 38 percent overvalued, according to BMO’s estimations; the bank does not have a crystal ball. That does not necessarily mean that a correction of 38 percent is on the horizon. However, the level of overvaluation is so high that prices need to reduce in order to maintain the same level of affordability. Raised interest rates are nearly invariably the method that is used to eliminate excess price gains in housing bubbles. “After leaving policy too loose for too long, psychology and affordability have already been tested by just 75 bps of Bank of Canada tightening, and we expect another 125 bps by year-end,” warns BMO. In addition to putting a stop to speculative thinking, a rise in interest rates alters the perspective of buyers and investors. According to BMO, housing prices for purchasers go from being priced with mortgages at 1.5 percent to being priced with mortgages between 3.75 percent and 5.4 percent. In the event that housing prices remain flat and incomes continue to rise, prices will need to fall by between 10 and 20 percent for affordability to remain at its current level. That level may not have been able to be maintained over the long term, which would have meant that prices would have to go further lower. Investors face an additional challenge in the form of a reduction in attractiveness when there are higher financing expenses. According to projections provided by BMO, cap rates, often known as the rent collected from being a landlord, would need to increase to between 4 and 5 percent. That is a situation that investors encounter more frequently than not. At the moment, a significant number of investor landlords are not even receiving sufficient income to meet their expenses. They wind up increasing their rents out of their own pocket in exchange for the rise in the value of their home. Up until this point, it has been successful since prices have gone up, but if interest rates were to go down, this wouldn’t be the case. A twenty percent drop in price is necessary in order to bring cap rates back to reasonable levels if there are no gains. At the national level, a market breakdown, of course, varies greatly from place to place. Comparatively speaking, markets such as Alberta have values that aren’t as stretched as those in Ontario. Real Estate Corrections In Canada Took Up To 15 Years To Recover The length of time that a decline in housing prices lasted was extremely variable due to the absence of any predetermined guidelines regarding the matter. In order to

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Canada’s housing affordability declines the most in 27 years.

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Canada’s housing affordability declines the most in 27 years. A mortgage for the average home in Canada will cost Canadians more than half of their household income for the first time since the mid-1990s. The National Bank of Canada (NBC) noted in its latest Housing Affordability Monitor report that housing affordability in Canada has worsened for the fifth consecutive quarter. In comparison to the previous quarter, the MPPI (mortgage payment as a proportion of income) for a typical home increased by 4.9 percentage points. This is the worst quarter in more than 27 years of declines in the stock market. All ten major markets studied by NBC were found to have decreased in affordability, with the exception of Victoria, Toronto, and Vancouver. “Over the last 12 months, the worsening in affordability was the nastiest in 40 years,” said the report. “For the first time since 1994, it would take more than 50 percent of income for a representative household to service the mortgage on a representative home in Canada’s main urban centres.” “Headwinds will continue to blow against Canada’s real estate market in the months ahead with the Bank of Canada pursuing its monetary policy normalization process through higher policy rates and quantitative tightening,” further said the report. In Q1-2022, rising property prices and rising interest rates were cited as the two key factors that contributed to Canada’s deteriorating housing affordability. Since Q3-2013, NBC’s 5-year benchmark mortgage rate has jumped 46 bps in Q4-2021, the highest one-quarter change since that period. By choosing variable-rate mortgages in recent months, most homebuyers have been able to escape large price rises, but the terms of these mortgages are becoming less attractive. Because of this, the resale market has been affected. The worst losses in affordability have struck Canada’s major cities the hardest. The most severe drops in affordability were seen in the largest and most costly cities in Canada during the first quarter of 2002. For the third quarter in a row, Victoria recorded the highest annual decline in its MPPI, which rose by 19.6 percentage points. As a direct consequence of this, Victoria’s MPPI reached 80%, which represents the highest level for the city since the second quarter of 2008. The MPPI in Victoria experienced an increase of 8.5 percentage points on a quarterly basis. The MPPI increased to 85.7 percent for non-condos and to 44.2 percent for condos, representing respective increases of 9.3 percent and 4.1 percent from the previous quarter. At the moment, the yearly household income required to afford a non-condo in Victoria is $204,078 whereas the annual household income required to afford a condo in Victoria is $123,747. At an annual savings rate of 10%, it would take 382 months (31.8 years) to save up enough money for a downpayment on a house that is not a condo, while it would only take 58 months (4.8 years) to save up enough money for a condo. In the same province, the city of Vancouver had a significant decline in its affordability as a result of the MPPI’s seven-point increase during the first quarter of 2018, an acceleration that hasn’t been seen in the records since the year 1994. The typical monthly mortgage payment in Vancouver now takes up 81.4 percent of the city’s median salary, making it the most expensive city in Canada in which to purchase a property. The Vancouver Multiple Property Index (MPPI) surged by nine percent quarterly to reach 101.5 percent for properties that were not condos. Meanwhile, the MPPI for condos rose by 3.2 percent to reach 43.4 percent. If you want to buy a house that isn’t a condo in the largest city in British Columbia, you’ll need an annual income of at least $285,078; if you want to buy a condo, you’ll need an annual income of at least $142,357. In the event that you intend to save up for a down payment, it will take you approximately 452 months (37.6 years) and 63 months (5.25 years) of savings at a rate of 10% to be able to afford a non-condo or condo residence, respectively. In Toronto, the situation is not significantly better than it was before. The city saw the largest quarterly decline in affordability since 1994 during the first quarter of 2012, as the MPPI increased by 8.1 percentage points to reach its highest level since 1990. The median price per square foot index (MPPI) for non-condo properties rose by 8.9 percent quarterly to 81.5 percent, while the same gauge increased by 4.2 percent for condo properties to an MPPI of 44.2 percent. Homebuyers in Toronto need an annual income of $228,100 to be able to afford the typical house that is not a condo. This figure is significantly more than the required amount of finances, which is only $144,644 for a condo. It would take around 363 months (30.2 years) to save up enough money for a down payment on a house that is not a condo, while it would only take 64 months (5.3 years) to save up enough money for a down payment on a condo in the city.   Related posts. Expert’s Reaction to the increasing rates by the Bank of Canada by admin123 Living in Main Floors- A Great matter of importance for Aging Canadians who want a Pleasant Life Ahead by admin123 National home prices historically higher, listings terribly low by admin123 Housing prices kicks off, stuck historically high, but trended lower in January by admin123 Soleil Condominiums by Mattamay to beam in Milton by admin123 As home prices rise, Ford wants to approve developments as soon as possible by admin123

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Toronto’s Real Estate Market is not in bubble wrap, confirms the Bank of Canada

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Toronto’s Real Estate Market is not in bubble wrap, confirms the Bank of Canada To all who were aiming to buy a house in Toronto and were waiting in hope that the real estate market ’bubble’ would soon burst, you may be waiting for quite a while. In spite of a tepid decline in the first couple of months of the COVID-19 public health crisis, Toronto has been winging its way ever since. The word “bubble” has been widely mentioned by the media when reporting on the red-hot Canadian real estate market.  For a market to be considered in a bubble, it needs to appear in the index’s “yellow zone.” Prior to the pandemic, Toronto’s housing market was in a red zone which meant it was a “breezy market” but based on the Bank of Canada’s recent index, it didn’t make the cut. Confirmation by Bank of Canada In March 2021, Bank of Canada officials wrote that national resales reached all-time highs and house price growth surpassed its previous peak and also added strong demand that the desire for more space and limited supply have scaled prices upwards. The Bank of Canada has recently released its House Price Exuberance Index (HPEI) Indicator for the third quarter of last year. Now, how does it work? Officials have three classifications for the HPEI measurement. Anything that surpasses 1.0 denotes the city’s housing market is exuberant and appears to be red on the chart. When the HPEI is between 0.95 and 1.00, a bubble will potentially form and appear in yellow colour. If the HPEI is below 0.95, it depicts no signs of exuberance and will appear in green. Prior to the pandemic, the Toronto housing market’s HPEI was above 1.00 i.e in the red zone. In the post-crisis housing sector, Toronto did not make the list of exuberant markets. In its analytical note, the institution wrote that the Canadian housing market has been extremely strong during the COVID-19 pandemic. By March 2021, national resales reached all-time highs and house price growth broke its previous peak. Constant periods of rapid growth in house prices can frame the expectation that prices will continue to increase, even if economic fundamentals cannot support these increases. Concluding expectations like this can become self-fulfilling when the prospect of higher prices in the future raises housing demand today. Now a question arises whether this is an accurate representation of the Canadian real estate market or not?  Many homebuyers would suggest that frothy valuations are not met in detached, semi-detached, townhome and condominium units, particularly over the last 18 months. Although it should be noted that the Federal Reserve’s Exuberance Index, which is comparable to its Canadian counterpart, considers Canada’s real estate industry to be breezy and situated in a bubble. Can we expect a slow-down in Toronto House Market? In an answer to this, the market fundamentals suggest ‘no’. As per the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, residential property sales pushed up 28 per cent in 2021, buoyed by record demand and notably low inventories. The highly compact market led to an average selling price of $1.095 million last year, up from the previous 2020 all-time high of $929,636. In a news release TRREB President Kevin Crigger stated that in spite of the continuing waves of COVID-19, demand for ownership housing had gone through a record pace in 2021. Economic extensions in many sectors supported job creation, especially in positions supporting above-average earnings. The fact that borrowing costs remained extremely low was further heightened to this. These aspects not only supported a continuation in demand for ground-oriented homes but also a renewal in the condo segment as well. A well-known proverb states that “Home is where Heart is”.Home is always a focus for residents and the pandemic period just elevated the depth of this proverb. In a statement,Keith Stewart, a Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver economist noted that with low-interest rates, more household savings, increased flexible work arrangements, and higher home prices than ever before, Metro Vancouverites, in record numbers, are assessing their housing needs and options. As the interest rates inflation prices will continue to rise thus we can conclude that Canada’s real estate market is in an interesting state, and can predict it could be more difficult to get a mortgage in the near future. Related posts. Toronto’s Real Estate Market is not in bubble wrap, confirms the Bank of Canada by admin123 Toronto and Durham properties continue to be purchased by Minto by admin123 With Canadian Bond yields reaching 2018 levels, the buyers can expect higher mortgage by admin123 More options available for the buyers while prices are breaking records by admin123 Supply fixing Canadian Real estate seems a tiny solution to the heap of problems by admin123 Is the Housing Market Going to Cool Down in 2022? by admin123

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April witnessed an increase of 8% in Canada’s housing starts

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April witnessed an increase of 8% in Canada’s housing starts There was an increase of 8 percent in the number of homes that began being constructed in Canada last month, which is an indication that the housing sector in the country is heading in the right direction. According to the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), the trend in housing started to increase to 257,846 units in April from 253,226 units in March, when they had decreased marginally from the previous month. When calculating the trend, a moving average of the monthly Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (SAAR) of housing starts is utilized as the key metric. This parameter is measured over a span of one year and one month. According to Bob Dugan, the Chief Economist of CMHC, “On a trend and monthly SAAR basis, the level of housing starts activity in Canada remains historically high, hovering well above 200,000 units since June 2020 and increased from March to April,” The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) utilizes the trend measure as a supplement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts in order to account for noteworthy changes in monthly estimates and to provide a clearer picture of the anticipated new housing supply. However, extreme caution is required when carrying out the measure in question. The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) issues a warning “In some situations, analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as the multi-unit segment largely drives the market and can vary significantly from one month to the next,” Among Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver, Toronto was the only market to post a decrease in total SAAR starts, which was driven by lower multi-unit and single-detached starts.” This statement was made in reference to the fact that the level of housing starts activity in Canada has remained historically high. The level of housing starts activity in Canada remains at a historically high level, holding far above 200,000 units, according to both the trend and the monthly SAAR basis. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of the total house starts across all Canadian regions in April was 267,330 units, which reflects an increase of 8 percent in comparison to the totals seen in March. In April, the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of total urban starts increased to 245,324 units, which was a ten percent increase from the previous month. While there was only a one percent increase in the number of urban starts for single-family detached homes, there was a 14 percent increase in the number of urban starts for multi-unit structures, which brought the total to 178,092 units. After taking into account the effects that seasonality has, it was estimated that rural beginnings will occur at an annual rate of 22,006 units. At a time when many people blame a lack of supply as the primary perpetrator behind the housing problem in Canada, this is some positive news for the market in Canada. Related posts. Expert’s Reaction to the increasing rates by the Bank of Canada by admin123 Living in Main Floors- A Great matter of importance for Aging Canadians who want a Pleasant Life Ahead by admin123 National home prices historically higher, listings terribly low by admin123 Housing prices kicks off, stuck historically high, but trended lower in January by admin123 Soleil Condominiums by Mattamay to beam in Milton by admin123 As home prices rise, Ford wants to approve developments as soon as possible by admin123

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A hint on change in Canada’s ‘stress test’ rules before year’s end

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A hint on change in Canada’s ‘stress test’ rules before year’s end Mortgage brokers argue that given the slowdown in the housing market, the Canadian banking regulator should relax its “stress test” qualifying rate for mortgages and make it easier to qualify for a mortgage. This week, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions issued a statement in which it alluded to the possibility that it might make “adjustments” to its qualifying rate before the end of the year. A review of the qualifying rate is performed by the regulator and then communicated to the general public every December, in advance of the hectic spring housing season that follows the following year. This week, however, the office, which is an independent federal agency that is responsible for supervising hundreds of financial institutions and over a thousand pension plans in Canada, suggested that an announcement may be forthcoming before the end of this year. According to a statement released by the regulatory body on Thursday,“Throughout the rest of the year, OSFI continually monitors the Canadian housing market and mortgage practices, and may make adjustments at any point if necessary for the health of the Canadian lending industry.” Some people working in the real estate industry see this as a sign that the office ought to take action and, in all likelihood, will do so given the rise in interest rates that has occurred this year and the resulting decrease in home sales. The most recent statistics released by the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board indicate that the housing market in the region reached its highest point in the month of February when houses and condos sold for an average of $1.33 million. The average price in the region dropped to $1.25 million as a result of a number of factors, including the Bank of Canada’s decision to raise interest rates in April and the expectation that they will do so again soon. Despite this, prices are still 15% higher than they were at this time last year. “The market is softening, prices are coming down. They (OSFI) did the stress test to cool the market. They don’t need any cooling of the market anymore. It’s already there now,” said mortgage broker Kim Gibbons. In order to avoid having to pay for mortgage insurance, homebuyers are required by the rules to demonstrate that they are able to afford mortgage payments at an interest rate of 5.25 percent or their mortgage contract rate plus two percent, whichever is higher. Homebuyers who have made a minimum down payment of 20 percent are exempt from this requirement. They were implemented in 2016 and 2017 with the goal of reducing overall market activity and preventing buyers from feeling overly pressured by rising interest rates. According to comments made by mortgage brokers in Thursday’s edition of the Star, the current average interest rate for mortgages with fixed terms of five years ranges from 4.19 to 4.25 percent. A borrower would need to demonstrate that they are capable of paying an interest rate that is as high as 6.25 percent in order to qualify for a loan with the requirement of a two percent plus contract. Gibbons believes that this is unreasonable and that it “doesn’t make sense” given the current state of affairs. “As things stand now they have got to do something,” Gibbons added. “Clients are going to alternative sources of lenders, credit unions where you don’t have to do two percent above the contract rate to qualify. People can qualify with credit unions much easier,” she said. “The stress test takes away about 20 percent of your purchasing power. Not always, but that’s kind of the rule.”Mortgage broker True North Mortgage, headquartered in Toronto, and its chief executive officer Dan Eisner are both of the opinions that the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions will step in before the end of the year. According to Eisner if the “If the current housing market continues on a downward trend in home prices, that will give a lot of headroom to OSFI to reduce the stress test rate and requirements for the contract rate plus two percent before the end of the year.” ”I wouldn’t be surprised if they just eliminate the contract rate plus a two percent portion of the stress test; it’s a bit too aggressive. It doesn’t make sense when the fixed rates are in the four percent levels,” Eisner said. Related posts. Expert’s Reaction to the increasing rates by the Bank of Canada by admin123 Living in Main Floors- A Great matter of importance for Aging Canadians who want a Pleasant Life Ahead by admin123 National home prices historically higher, listings terribly low by admin123 Housing prices kicks off, stuck historically high, but trended lower in January by admin123 Soleil Condominiums by Mattamay to beam in Milton by admin123 As home prices rise, Ford wants to approve developments as soon as possible by admin123

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April witnessed a fall in home sales as mortgage rates increase

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April witnessed a fall in home sales as mortgage rates increase The Canadian Real Estate Association reported on Monday that rising mortgage rates caused a slowdown in the pace of home sales in April compared to the frenetic pace they started the year at. According to the findings of the association, the number of homes sold in May 2022 fell to 54,894 from 73,907 in April 2021, which was the month that the nation set a record for the number of sales in the month. Compared month-over-month, sales in April were down 12.6% when compared with sales in March; however, April still ranked as the third-highest sales figure ever recorded for the month of April, just behind 2021 and 2016. “The demand fever in Canadian housing has broken and, who would have thought, all it took was a nudge in interest rates by the Bank of Canada to change sentiment,” said BMO Capital Markets senior analyst Robert Kavcic, in a note to investors. According to CREA, a significant portion of the slowdown can be attributed to rising fixed mortgage rates, which have been on the rise since 2021 but have had a more significant impact in the most recent months. Over the course of one month, the association noted that the typical discounted five-year fixed rates increased by approximately three to four percent from their previous levels. The rate also has an impact on how well buyers perform on the mortgage stress test. This test used to require buyers with uninsured mortgages — borrowers who had made a down payment of at least 20 percent — to carry a mortgage rate that was either two percentage points above the contract rate or 5.25 percent, whichever was greater. The rate currently has an impact on how well buyers perform on this test. According to CREA, the stress test for fixed borrowers has recently moved from 5.25 percent to the low 6 percent range, which represents another increase of approximately one percent in just one month. “People are nervous. They are thinking, ‘if I take on this mortgage when mortgage rates are going up and the price to (live) is more, what is going to happen?” said Anita Springate-Renaud, a Toronto broker with Engel & Völkers. She observed that many homes were still receiving multiple offers during the previous month, but the typical number of offers was now between two and three rather than twenty. “For buyers, this slowdown could mean more time to consider options in the market,” said Jill Oudil, CREA’s chair, in a news release. It is possible that for sellers, this will necessitate a return to marketing strategies that are more traditional. This shift in sentiment was reflected in the number of newly listed homes, which fell by 2.2 percent to 70,957 last month from 72,557 in March. On a seasonally adjusted basis, this decrease was due to a decrease in the number of newly listed homes. The number of newly listed properties fell to 91,559 in the most recent month, which is a decrease of 10.5% compared to April 2022’s total of 102,294 listings. Despite the fact that the CREA reported a slowdown in sales and a reduction in the number of listings, Canadians spent even more money on homes than they did in 2021. In April, the average price of a home across the nation was just over $746,000. This represents a 7.4 percent increase from the average price of about $695,000 in April of the previous year. The Greater Toronto and Vancouver areas were not included in this calculation, which resulted in a $138,000 decrease in the national average price, according to CREA. On the other hand, when taking into account seasonal factors, the national average home price dropped by 3.8 percent from $771,125 in March to $741,517 in the most recent month. In the most recent month, the home price index benchmark price reached $866,700. This represents a decrease of 0.6% from the previous month, but an increase of 23.76% from one year ago and 63.96% from five years ago. The benchmark price was the least expensive in Saskatchewan, where it amounted to $271,100, and it was the most expensive in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia, where it was greater than $1.3 million. The housing markets in Ontario’s suburbs are the “shakiest” because of the way prices have dropped since their peaks in February, but he said that single-detached homes and townhomes appear to be cooling off the quickest. Related posts. Expert’s Reaction to the increasing rates by the Bank of Canada by admin123 Living in Main Floors- A Great matter of importance for Aging Canadians who want a Pleasant Life Ahead by admin123 National home prices historically higher, listings terribly low by admin123 Housing prices kicks off, stuck historically high, but trended lower in January by admin123 Soleil Condominiums by Mattamay to beam in Milton by admin123 As home prices rise, Ford wants to approve developments as soon as possible by admin123

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BMO concerned about the collapes in Canadian real estate

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BMO concerned about the collapes in Canadian real estate Everyone is interested in determining how low real estate prices can go in Canada now that the real estate bubble there has finally started to deflate. Over the course of the weekend, BMO Capital Markets provided clients with an analysis of the topic, including models and historical context. Increasing interest rates will undoubtedly bring about a correction because they will eliminate excessive leverage. Simply to account for the higher borrowing rates, prices will need to fall by a large amount. Concerning how long it will take for the market to recover, the only prior housing bubble in Canada that was nearly this magnitude took 15 years for the market to recover from. Historically, Canadian real estate prices have always adjusted to fundamentals Since the 1980s, BMO Research discovered that the cost of housing in Canada has climbed by approximately 3% annually. This is roughly a reflection of inflation, growth in real wages, and lowering interest rates. Remember that low-interest rates handled the majority of the heavy work, so don’t be surprised if it seems like a sharp slope for salaries. Housing often trades at a price that is in line with its liquidity, with the exception of when it’s in the midst of a bubble. People will only pay for something that makes sense to them, to put it in more eloquent terms. This has a direct bearing on the use of leverage in mortgage transactions. The conventional wisdom holds that a reduction in interest rates will make housing more affordable. On the surface, it makes perfect sense: paying less interest means more money can go toward paying down the debt. In point of fact, a decrease in interest rates results in an increase in the amount of leverage available to a buyer. The ability of purchasers to more readily tolerate price increases results in prices rising even more quickly. This is a point that has been emphasised in recent times by the Bank of Canada (BoC), but it appears that many people have ignored it. This will require a more in-depth discussion at another time, but it is essential to comprehend pricing adjustments. The rate of inflation is currently at an all-time high, while mortgage rates have recently fallen to an all-time low. Both of these factors contribute to a faster increase in leverage, which ultimately drives up housing prices. However, according to BMO, a third of today’s housing prices are the result of price fluctuations that have occurred during the past two years alone. That is far higher than low rates, and it is approximately ten times the historic average rate of growth. “We’ve long maintained that demographic and supply-side fundamentals have driven price gains, even in the early stages of COVID-19 alongside some economic adjustments. But, as we warned early last year, more recent price behavior has been driven by excess demand, market psychology and froth,” explained Robert Kavcic, a senior economist at BMO. Increasing interest rates will reduce some of that excess, which is already dampening the enthusiasm of speculators.  “So, when we speak of a housing correction, it’s not a question of if, but where, how much, and for how long?” he said. Canadian Real Estate Is 38 Percent Overpriced And Requires A Substantial Decline Just To Accommodate Interest Rates How much will the market for Canadian real estate eventually correct? Home prices are approximately 38 percent overvalued, according to BMO’s estimations; the bank does not have a crystal ball. That does not necessarily mean that a correction of 38 percent is on the horizon. However, the level of overvaluation is so high that prices need to reduce in order to maintain the same level of affordability. Raised interest rates are nearly invariably the method that is used to eliminate excess price gains in housing bubbles. “After leaving policy too loose for too long, psychology and affordability have already been tested by just 75 bps of Bank of Canada tightening, and we expect another 125 bps by year-end,” warns BMO. In addition to putting a stop to speculative thinking, a rise in interest rates alters the perspective of buyers and investors. According to BMO, housing prices for purchasers go from being priced with mortgages at 1.5 percent to being priced with mortgages between 3.75 percent and 5.4 percent. In the event that housing prices remain flat and incomes continue to rise, prices will need to fall by between 10 and 20 percent for affordability to remain at its current level. That level may not have been able to be maintained over the long term, which would have meant that prices would have to go further lower. Investors face an additional challenge in the form of a reduction in attractiveness when there are higher financing expenses. According to projections provided by BMO, cap rates, often known as the rent collected from being a landlord, would need to increase to between 4 and 5 percent. That is a situation that investors encounter more frequently than not. At the moment, a significant number of investor landlords are not even receiving sufficient income to meet their expenses. They wind up increasing their rents out of their own pocket in exchange for the rise in the value of their home. Up until this point, it has been successful since prices have gone up, but if interest rates were to go down, this wouldn’t be the case. A twenty percent drop in price is necessary in order to bring cap rates back to reasonable levels if there are no gains. At the national level, a market breakdown, of course, varies greatly from place to place. Comparatively speaking, markets such as Alberta have values that aren’t as stretched as those in Ontario. Real Estate Corrections In Canada Took Up To 15 Years To Recover The length of time that a decline in housing prices lasted was extremely variable due to the absence of any predetermined guidelines regarding the matter. In order to

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Canada’s housing affordability declines the most in 27 years.

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Canada’s housing affordability declines the most in 27 years. A mortgage for the average home in Canada will cost Canadians more than half of their household income for the first time since the mid-1990s. The National Bank of Canada (NBC) noted in its latest Housing Affordability Monitor report that housing affordability in Canada has worsened for the fifth consecutive quarter. In comparison to the previous quarter, the MPPI (mortgage payment as a proportion of income) for a typical home increased by 4.9 percentage points. This is the worst quarter in more than 27 years of declines in the stock market. All ten major markets studied by NBC were found to have decreased in affordability, with the exception of Victoria, Toronto, and Vancouver. “Over the last 12 months, the worsening in affordability was the nastiest in 40 years,” said the report. “For the first time since 1994, it would take more than 50 percent of income for a representative household to service the mortgage on a representative home in Canada’s main urban centres.” “Headwinds will continue to blow against Canada’s real estate market in the months ahead with the Bank of Canada pursuing its monetary policy normalization process through higher policy rates and quantitative tightening,” further said the report. In Q1-2022, rising property prices and rising interest rates were cited as the two key factors that contributed to Canada’s deteriorating housing affordability. Since Q3-2013, NBC’s 5-year benchmark mortgage rate has jumped 46 bps in Q4-2021, the highest one-quarter change since that period. By choosing variable-rate mortgages in recent months, most homebuyers have been able to escape large price rises, but the terms of these mortgages are becoming less attractive. Because of this, the resale market has been affected. The worst losses in affordability have struck Canada’s major cities the hardest. The most severe drops in affordability were seen in the largest and most costly cities in Canada during the first quarter of 2002. For the third quarter in a row, Victoria recorded the highest annual decline in its MPPI, which rose by 19.6 percentage points. As a direct consequence of this, Victoria’s MPPI reached 80%, which represents the highest level for the city since the second quarter of 2008. The MPPI in Victoria experienced an increase of 8.5 percentage points on a quarterly basis. The MPPI increased to 85.7 percent for non-condos and to 44.2 percent for condos, representing respective increases of 9.3 percent and 4.1 percent from the previous quarter. At the moment, the yearly household income required to afford a non-condo in Victoria is $204,078 whereas the annual household income required to afford a condo in Victoria is $123,747. At an annual savings rate of 10%, it would take 382 months (31.8 years) to save up enough money for a downpayment on a house that is not a condo, while it would only take 58 months (4.8 years) to save up enough money for a condo. In the same province, the city of Vancouver had a significant decline in its affordability as a result of the MPPI’s seven-point increase during the first quarter of 2018, an acceleration that hasn’t been seen in the records since the year 1994. The typical monthly mortgage payment in Vancouver now takes up 81.4 percent of the city’s median salary, making it the most expensive city in Canada in which to purchase a property. The Vancouver Multiple Property Index (MPPI) surged by nine percent quarterly to reach 101.5 percent for properties that were not condos. Meanwhile, the MPPI for condos rose by 3.2 percent to reach 43.4 percent. If you want to buy a house that isn’t a condo in the largest city in British Columbia, you’ll need an annual income of at least $285,078; if you want to buy a condo, you’ll need an annual income of at least $142,357. In the event that you intend to save up for a down payment, it will take you approximately 452 months (37.6 years) and 63 months (5.25 years) of savings at a rate of 10% to be able to afford a non-condo or condo residence, respectively. In Toronto, the situation is not significantly better than it was before. The city saw the largest quarterly decline in affordability since 1994 during the first quarter of 2012, as the MPPI increased by 8.1 percentage points to reach its highest level since 1990. The median price per square foot index (MPPI) for non-condo properties rose by 8.9 percent quarterly to 81.5 percent, while the same gauge increased by 4.2 percent for condo properties to an MPPI of 44.2 percent. Homebuyers in Toronto need an annual income of $228,100 to be able to afford the typical house that is not a condo. This figure is significantly more than the required amount of finances, which is only $144,644 for a condo. It would take around 363 months (30.2 years) to save up enough money for a down payment on a house that is not a condo, while it would only take 64 months (5.3 years) to save up enough money for a down payment on a condo in the city. Related posts. Expert’s Reaction to the increasing rates by the Bank of Canada by admin123 Living in Main Floors- A Great matter of importance for Aging Canadians who want a Pleasant Life Ahead by admin123 National home prices historically higher, listings terribly low by admin123 Housing prices kicks off, stuck historically high, but trended lower in January by admin123 Soleil Condominiums by Mattamay to beam in Milton by admin123 As home prices rise, Ford wants to approve developments as soon as possible by admin123

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