The fact that banks have become vocal critics of Canada's real estate bubble is one of the biggest caution flags. Clients should remember that this isn't a supply issue, according to BMO Chief Economist Douglas Porter. Last year, the bank cautioned that without demand measures, price growth would accelerate. Rather than heeding such counsel, policymakers clung to the supply store. After a year of near-record new house deliveries, the price increase is nearly double that of the previous year. Nothing like this has happened in Canada.

Demand Measures Were Needed Last Year, and They May Be Needed Again This Year, according to BMO.

The country's oldest bank has been an outspoken critic of the government's inaction on real estate prices. Home prices were already regarded as out of control and in need of intervention at this time last year. "We believe authorities and that in charge should move quicker, in some way, to address the housing pricing problem before the market faces more severe price hikes beyond anyone's control," Porter said.

Last Spring, BMO cautioned that it would be too late to temper the market. However, policy actions aimed at limiting demand could have slowed the rate of price rise. Instead, policymakers emphasised the supply story, much to the delight of the sector. The promises to promote demand were much more explicit in the political platforms on which parties ran. It was difficult to find an economist who did not believe this approach would raise prices. 

He added "some indicated that the market was going to slow down and there was no requirement for urgency,” he continues, "while some others were just focused on supply (in slow motion) to resolve what was clearly an emergency. With rising supply, Canadian real estate prices are accelerating.

So begins the tale of Canada's failure to alter course, instead of adding fuel to the fire. According to the most recent CREA data, home prices increased by 29 per cent year over year in February. It was a problem last year, and it's now less of a government worry than it was when the rate was half that.

Existing homes may be scarce, but they are far from the only supply, according to BMO. New home starts came close to breaking records, while completions came close to breaking records as well. The number of new construction starts and completions is still substantially higher than it was before 2020.

"Right now, prices in a lot of markets are going parabolic, and the price strength looks to be feeding on itself... "As a result, even with a robust supply response, the near lack of serious demand-control measures has allowed prices to go wild," Porter argues.

In Canada, supply is only a small part of the problem

When it comes to supply, the bank isn't saying stop building; rather, it's saying it won't address pricing at this point in the market. There is definitely a need to encourage supply. But, as he puts it, "it's like bringing up a squirt gun to a raging flame of demand for fire, which is being increased by expectations of extra price hikes." If it wasn't evident already, this is one of Canada's largest banks, and it has a vested interest in seeing prices rise. The motivation for them to obtain more and larger mortgages is obvious. That's how messed up things are right now. Even those with a vested interest in the current market are concerned about systemic flaws.